“Alea iacta est” or the inevitable uncertainty beyond certainty

Since the ancient Mesopotamia dice have been well-known devices not only for gambling or board games. It was also used by Laplace to introduce and illustrate his probability theory on discrete statistical distribution to become an essential fundament in science, technology and finance.

Ceasar on the other side emphasized his determination as he was quoted with “Alea iacta est”. Today the metaphor of the rolled dices refer to given facts, made decisions, it equals to complete certainty of events.... or is it?

In particular, regulatory, legal or executive decisions force corporates to adapt, to initiate a change process that transforms an existing organization or business. Subject matter experts of the affected organization units are often addressed with the burden to manage or conduct the change. That might, given their expertise, appear as an obvious choice, but back to the question on certainty, how strong can we rely on the expertise or their certainty?

Before we answer that question, let’s have look to our die. The die, that we are so familiar with, has been rolled. And by have a look, I mean literally, with our eyes. If we are being honest, no matter how familiar it seems, we actually only can see three faces of it.

How about the rest? We believe to know that opposite sides sums up to seven. If there are two looking to it from different angles this assumption makes both not only believe in knowing what each side of the die looks like, but even trusting if not insisting that his counterpart relies on the exact same information.

However, the top face, that’s the only common fact both parties share. That is one out of six! While a dialog might resolve the four other sides, the bottom face remains for both unknown, which still is one of six in the dark! The certainty now has turned into an inevitable uncertainty once the assumption might be no longer valid. As a matter of fact, in Mesopotamia the numbers of opposite sides were consecutive numbers rather than summing up to seven till modern times. Why should it even be a number between one and six, might as well be the first six odd numbers, fibonacchi numbers or any other sequence, different game different rules.

Change management requires much more than expertise. Expertise along with familiarity and trust can lead to short conclusions and wrong assessments.

Strong analytics, firm methodology and a healthy level of skepticism along the process can enable and engage organizations to cope with complex transformations and should be taken into consideration during staffing, the benefit of fresh eyes can outvalue the cost sustainably.

Believe what you see, rather than seeing what you believe.

Alper Oezmacun